Analyst Breakdown and Second Round

Sorry about the lack of postings lately, unfortunately the upcoming finals week is to blame, expect a return to more postings and the mailbag (the questions are piling up!) in a week or two. But it would be simply irresponsible of me, with the playoffs starting tomorrow, not to take a study break and do a second round preview.

Since there are plenty of “expert analysts” on ESPN to give you picks, I decided to do a breakdown on their NBA series picks since 2008 to see how much we should trust them. So here's who I would listen to:

1) David Thorpe: 38-11 (.775)

First Round: 25-3 (Our first round leader)

Second and Beyond: 13-8

Perfect Picks (Team and Games): 5

Note: 5-1 in Western Conference Semis, 0-3 in ECF

2) Tim Legler: 35-11 (.761)

First Round: 19-6

Second and Beyond: 16-5 (Leader)

Perfect Picks: 4 (Tied for lowest total, seems adamant about always picking series to go at least 6)

Note: Did not pick the Eastern First Round in 2008, which most analysts got perfect, may have cost him 4 wins and the lead. 6-0 in the second round of the west.

3) Chris Broussard: 38-12 (.760)

First Round: 24-5

Second and Beyond: 14-7

Perfect Picks: 6

Notes: 5-1 in conference finals, 1-2 in finals.

4) Chad Ford: 37-13 (.740)

First Round: 23-6

Second and Beyond: 14-7

Perfect Picks: 10 (Tied for lead)

Notes: 0-3 in ECF, 3-0 in WCF

5) John Hollinger: 36-13 (.735)

First Round: 22-6

Second and Beyond: 14-7

Perfect Picks: 6

Notes: 10-2 in 2^nd round, 2-4 in Conference Finals

6) JA Adande: 36-14 (.720)

First Round: 22-7

Second and Beyond: 14-7

Perfect Picks: 5

Notes: 8-6 in the Western First Round (Tied for worst), 0-3 in ECF, 3-0 in WCF

7) Chris Sheridan: 34-16 (.680)

First Round: 22-7

Second and Beyond: 12-9

Perfect Picks: 10 (Tied for lead)

Notes: Started out 12-0 in picks I looked at (all first rounders) then fell apart...

8) Henry Abbott: 32-18 (.640)

First Round: 21-8

Second and Beyond: 11-10 (Tied for Worst)

Perfect Picks: 9

Notes: 3-6 After Second Round

9) Marc Stein: 31-18 (.633)

First Round: 20-8 (Worst)

Second and Beyond: 11-10 (Tied for worst)

Perfect Picks: 4 (Tied for worst)

Notes: Picked the Raptors over the Magic in 6 in the first round of 2008...Don't know if I'm going to listen to him anymore...

So there you go. Some notes on that, I was missing a few series because the links were broken and some of the guys didn't pick a few. To see their picks for these playoffs go here: http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2011/matchup/_/teams/celtics-heat# and click through the series.

Anyways I'll keep my picks short now because that took a while and it should serve as a guide of what picks to trust but here we go:

Western Conference- Quick note on the west, I'm not very high on any of these teams. The first round looked like a bunch of aging teams on their last legs, with some exciting new teams that don't (and probably won't) have enough to win a title. The only team that I though looked very good was the Thunder, and if that first game hadn't had the missed offensive interference call, Denver might have stolen that game, the outlook would've been completely different and the series would still be going. Ah, well.

2 Lakers vs 3 Mavericks: The Mavericks looked better against a better team in the first round. Add in the fact that Kobe might be dealing with ankle trouble, Gasol looked pretty shaky, there's about a 110% chance Bynum will suffer some sort of injury it looks like this could be the series the Lakers may finally go down. However, the Lakers (and the NBA front office), always seem to find a way to win. Last year they ran into a little trouble with the Thunder a couple years ago the Rockets looked like they would beat them and this year they lost game one. They always seem to find a way. Tough to call, I'll go Lakers in 7.

4 Thunder vs 8 Grizzlies: The series everyone was expecting. The Griz beat the Thunder three out of four times this year and are coming off their upset of the first seeded Spurs. Unfortunately, in the regular season the Griz had the advantage over the Thunder because there was no Kendrick Perkins to bully Zach Randolph (and now Marc Gasol looking good too) down low, and Memphis loses their advantage of being younger and more athletic than the team they're facing. I think the Thunder look like the best team in the West right now and they win in 5.

Easter Conference

1 Bulls vs. 5 Hawks: The Hawks surprised me in the first round, actually showing up to play unlike last year. They probably looked like they wanted it more than the Bulls in the first round, until game 5 when Chicago got it together. I still think Chicago is the best team in basketball right now. As long as Boozer gets going, which I expect him to now that he doesn't have to get knocked around by the dangerous Jeff Foster down low, Chicago wins this in a comfortable 6.

2 Heat vs. 3 Celtics: The series everyone, including myself, has been waiting for. Throw out home court in this one, both teams are hungry to go into the other building and quiet the crowd. I think both teams split their first home games. Normally I would give Boston an edge off the bench but they looked pretty terrible in the first round. My first key to this series is Jeff Green, the Celtics traded Perk to get a back up wing who can guard guys like LeBron (okay, mainly just LeBron) and the Celtics need him to show up and play some Tony Allen or James Poseyesque defense off the bench. The second is will the Heat be able to stop Rondo. He's probably drooling over the Mike Bibby matchup and the Heat are going to need to stop him if they want a chance. Despite the rivalry, I'm making a Celtics-Lakers connection here and saying they both know how to win games. The healthy Celtics have found a way to win all the games they had in the big-3 era and until they can't do that, I'm picking them. C's in 7.

NBA PLAYOFF TIME IS FINALLY HERE

Hello my six followers, here are some first round picks, just in time for the first round to start:

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

1 San Antonio vs. 8 Memphis

Ginobili being hurt makes this one a little more interesting. I actually think the Griz have a chance to push this one to six or seven especially if Manu isn't back for a few games, or not playing at 100%. Memphis has a decent defense with Tony “Kobe stopper” Allen and Marc Gasol as a pretty good shot blocker and without Manu on offense the Spurs might have a little trouble scoring.

Pick: Spurs in 5, Memphis puts up a good fight, but they have less experience and will be out-coached in addition to being a worse overall team.

2 Lakers vs. 7 New Orleans

It looks like Bynum will be back and that means the Lakers are in the best position they could be in. If Kobe and Pau Gasol catch Steve Blake's chicken pox and miss some time then I'll reevaluate.

Pick: Lakers in 5, much better team, but their inconsistency might show up when the get up a couple games and allow the Hornets to grab a game.

3 Dallas vs. 6 Portland

I said it before, and I'll say it again. “So tempting to pick the upset with the new look Blazers who have won 63% since they got Gerald Wallace, but if it weren't for a 2-9 stretch from Dec. 28th to January 17th, they'd be the one seed right now. The Mavs are first in assists per game and I think too many people are underrating them, Dallas in 6” (Englehart 4/5/11). Yes. That's a direct quote folks. Sticking too it. Portland will definitely push them pretty far though.

The pick: Dallas in 7. Great series.

4 Oklahoma City vs. 5 Denver

Once again, very tough series, don't know who to pick. Both teams have crazy home court advantages. Denver because they have the altitude and great fans and the OKC fans were incredible in the playoffs last year, giving them quite the advantage at home against the Lakers. Based on that, the Thunder should win 4-3, but we'll see. They also have more experience in the playoffs and playing together, with Perk brining them championship experience. Still, Denver has a ton of weapons and more depth.

The Pick: Nuggets in 7. Deep down I think the Thunder will probably win, but I'm picking all the better seeds so I'll go with Denver because I think it's pretty much a toss-up.

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

1 Chicago vs. 8 Indiana

Interesting fact I just saw, the Pacers had the worst attendance in the NBA. That's basketball country, come on people! Anyways, Chicago is just so good and Indiana is so average. Still, they were a pretty good home team and beat Chicago once at home. I think they could maybe do it again. Maximum of once. They had a pretty horrendous and worst in the playoffs 13-28 record on the road. I don't even see them coming close in Chicago.

The Pick: Bulls sweep.

2 Miami vs. 7 Philadelphia

I love this Philadelphia team. Which is the opposite of how I feel about this Heat team. Philly is gonna be good very soon, but not quite yet. Still, I think they could give the Heatles more trouble than people think. Andre Iguodala could give Le”Betard”Bron some serious headaches, and a frustrated LeBron could spell trouble for Miami. The 7'1 Spencer Hawes could spell trouble for Miami down low.

The Pick: Miami in 6, Philly might even get one on the road from the fair-weather Miami fans.

4 Orlando vs. 5 Atlanta

Atlanta is 14-26 against teams above .500 this season. That's the second worst of all playoff teams ahead of only Indiana. Bottomline is they won the games they should have won and struggled against good teams. Not a good formula for the playoffs. The Magic absolutely smoked the Hawks in the playoffs last year and even though they have their new look, they still have their coach and general core, and Jason Richardson is a much better scorer than Vince Carter was while he was busy folding under pressure in the playoffs last season.

The Pick: Orlando in 5

6 New York Knicks vs. YOUR BOSTON CELTICS

Saved the best for last. I've been hearing a bunch of people trying to sound smart, pick the upset, take the Knicks. Well I am absolutely not buying this one bit. Yeah, the Celtics have limped into the playoffs and the Knicks are playing pretty good basketball, but look at the facts. Boston in 4-0 vs. New York this year, its not even worth comparing the level of playoff experience these two teams have, and Boston didn't use any of their starting five, or Delonte West, Nenad Krstic or Jermaine O'Neal in beating a decent amount of the Knicks team the other day. The Celtics just have so much more depth than the team that had to trade half their roster to get Carmelo Anthony. And I still don't understand why they bought out Ronnie Brewer? Was he really not worth using off the bench?

The Pick: C's in 5. The Knicks only chance is if they take game one or two and catch the Celtics sleeping, if the Celtics get going see ya later New York. However, Boston has been waiting for the playoffs to start again since June 17th of last year.

Mailbag: Take two

Here we go reader(s?), time for mailbag take two! Once again we were a little short on comments, so make sure you send them in to either henglehart@students.colgate.edu, the comment box at the bottom of the page, or @gregenglehart or twitter. Exciting though is we do have our first real question this week! (Thanks Dad.) I'll get to that one last. Go time:

Five days down in the MLB Season, what do you think? Lots of teams expected to finish well (Red Sox, Angels, Twins, Brewers) not doing as well as teams like the Orioles and Royals.

(Submitted by Greg from Newburyport, MA)

Yup, lot of surprises, I was hoping to put this blog up later following a Reds loss so I could mention the FIRST PLACE PITTSBURGH PIRATES, but instead I'll just point out they're tied for the wild card. Anyways, that's a pretty good microcosm of the season so far, lots of "surprises," but you only really notice them because it's the first series so everything gets over-magnified. If the Royals take three out of four from the Angels in July, nobody notices. Still, seeing this is what it's all about and why baseball is so great. You start out with every team having hope (except the 0-3 'stros it won't get much better, sorry Houston), move on to summer (who doesn't love a ballgame on a warm summer evening) and end with a battle for the most competitive playoff spot in all major American sports. Basically, none of it means anything, but its fun to watch. Yeah, the Red Sox lost three already, well they can afford to lose 59 more and still win 100. That's a lot of games. The two series that I thought were most important was Cincinnati sweeping the Brew Crew and the Dodgers taking three out of four from the Giants. Both series saw two division favorites squaring off, which means the game basically meant twice as much if they had played random teams. The 1-3 Twins aren't in as much of a hole as the one and three Giants, because they haven't already lost a chance to capitalize against a division opponent. But that "hole" they are in isn't very deep at all and in the grand scheme of things these games are more fun than meaningful.

Just eleven days till the NBA Playoffs tip off, how do you see this one playing out?

(Submitted by Greg from Colgate University)

Well call me the Boston Celtics, but I am more than ready for this postseason to start.

I'll start out west since I usually give all the love to my Celtics on this blog. (I'll keep my answers brief here, but I may expand on it once the seeds are set)

Let's assume the seeds stay the way they are since that's easiest gives us:

1-8: Spurs vs. Griz-Gotta take the favorite and go with the Spurs here, in four.

2-7: Lakers vs. Hornets-Same thing I'll go with the defending champs (wow that hurts to write that), in five.

3-6: Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers-So tempting to pick the upset with the new look Blazers who have won 63% since they got Gerald Wallace, but if it weren't for a 2-9 stretch from Dec. 28th to January 17th, they'd be the one seed right now. The Mavs are first in assists per game and I think too many people are underrating them, Dallas in 6.

4-5: Thunder vs. Nuggets-This has great series, seven games written all over it. Two of the best home court advantages in the NBA, both teams making big moves at the trade deadline that seem to make them better. I'm going to pick the upset here, partially just because I don't like picking all the better seeds and I think this one could be a toss up. Nuggets in 7 (yup, on the road in OKC.)

On to the East.

1-8: Chicago vs. Indy-Not even a close series. Chicago in four.

2-8: Heat vs. Knicks-Not sure either of these seeds will hold, the Celtics/Heat and Knicks/Sixers are still all possibilities to play each other. I don't know which team is scarier in the playoffs for the Heat/C's, the Knicks or the Sixers, both have a lot of potential and should play either team very tough. I'll say the Knicks are the tougher team mainly because they're up 76-47 on the Raptors and they run a lot. They also beat the Heat with Melo already. Anyways, the point is, either matchup is tough, but both better teams should escape. Heat in 6.

3-6: Celtics vs. Sixers-Scary matchup for the C's, they've struggled against the Sixers all season, and Andre Iguodala gives Paul Pierce fits. The 'tics have also struggled in the first round in the big three era. But I think this team has shown they still know how to turn it on when they have to, and I think ever since the Perk trade they've been eager for the playoffs. C's come out strong and win in 5.

4-5: Magic vs. Hawks-I honestly think the Hawks are worse than the Sixers and Knicks. Magic in 5.

I'll post my predictions for the later rounds when the seeds are set for sure.

How ugly was the NCAA Championship last night?

(Submitted by Greg form Hamilton, NY)

Ugly. Three two's in the entire game for Butler, are you kidding me. I do think the defenses did a great job, watching Butler d-up the UConn inbounds plays was pretty fun to watch, but this was a pretty ugly game. Missed layups galore for Butler. I think the NCAA should look into whether or not they should continue having these games in football arenas, the backdrop is definitely tough on shooters and leads to a less exciting game. Losing 30,000 fans in the seats over three games could be balanced by adding a million viewers if the basketball were higher quality.

You promised more sports than just Basketball, Football and Baseball. Where is it?!

(Submitted by Greg from Mass)

You're absolutely right Greg. And what better week to bring that up than the start of the Champions League Quarterfinals. Big surprise was seeing Schalke 04 win 5-2 at Inter. So much for the defending champs. Schalke is currently 10th in a crazy Bundesliga (Bayern third and not going to win). Real over Totty 4-0 at home today, means both these contests are essentially decided before the second leg. I hate to see Tottenham lose, especially on a red from Crouch in the fifteenth, because it was fun to see this surprise team in the EPL doing some damage with exciting guys like Garreth Bale and Aaron Lennon leading them. With Chelsea playing ManU, only one EPL team will make it through to the semis, which is unfortunate because you definitely want to see at least one English club playing in the final at Wembley. As far as that one goes, ManU is looking too good right now, now that Rooney is back in top form. Chelsea is going to need Torres to figure it out fast and show why he was worth the money they paid if they want a chance. I'd call a draw or a one goal ManU win at Stamford Bridge tomorrow and a win at Old Trafford to seal it. The only other match is Barcelona vs. suprising Shakhtar. Looks like the clock is going to strike midnight on Cinderella, Barcelona wins this one big at the Nou Camp and puts it out of reach.

And finally out first real question:

How will taking a paycut affect Cam Newton in the NFL?

(Submitted by Harry from the Graveyard aka my Dad)

Well, it's not looking like a paycut because Todd McShay today was saying he's hearing a lot of rumors that Newton will go number one overall. Are you kidding me? Did NFL teams not learn anything from Vince Young? Athletic quarterbacks with athletic ability but questionable arms who win Heismans and National Championships but score 9 on their wonderlics don't equate to NFL success. Let's not forget his off court issues, stole a kids laptop at Florida, left Florida because of three instances of academic cheating, went to Auburn and may have gotten paid a boatload of money. I don't see how he possibly seems like a guy who could lead this (or just about any) team to success.

Alright that's all for tonight, keep sending those questions in!

2011 mlb predictions, moments before opening pitch

Alright, with just moments to go before the 2011 season kicks off, I'll go ahead an get my predictions out there.

(Note: I posted this about two seconds before the first pitch of the season, but I left some stuff out, i.e. my analysis for the D'Backs was "out of time and not worth mentioning" so I went back and cleaned it up a little.)

AL East
1. Red Sox-Hard to pick against the Sox here, coming off an 89 win season, which was hurt by injuries to key guys like Pedroia and Bucholz. Factor in their returns and the off season signings of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Bobby Jenks and this team is scary good. Not only do they have an extremely strong lineup, but their pitching rotation is crazy too. Everybody's talking about how good it is to have Hamels and Blanton as fourth and fifth starters, but I'd have to take Beckett and Dice-K over them any day of the week. Easy pick here for the Sox to win the AL East.
2. Yankees- Boring pick, Red Sox then Yankees, but it has to be made. This division is less competitve this year with the Rays on the decline and the teams paying $200 million should be the ones up front. But this Yankees team is very good, especially on the offensive end. Having Russell Martin behind the dish is a nice addition even if his numbers have been declining lately, and when you have Teixeira, A-Rod and Cano hitting 3,4,5, it's a pretty strong team. Still I don't think this team's pitching is nearly on par with its hitting, which is something to watch out for. When you look at how much money the team is spending and their offensive power, it's hard to believe they don't have anything above the young Ivan Nova, with three career decisions (though I'll admit it looks like he had a good spring) and the 34 year old, Freddy Garcia who has had a long and pretty mediocre career compared to the grandeur of much of this team. I think the Kevin Millwood signing, which shows they think they might have to turn to Kevin Millwood, says all you need to know about the relatively shaky rotation.
3. Rays-They lost a lot and I think the drop-off will be pretty significant after the Yankees this year. Kind of sad to see this go from young and talented bunch of guys to praying that Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez still belong on a baseball field and not in a retirement home. They do still have most of the guys who were around for their world series run and ensuing success, but they probably lack the depth to be very competitive this year, especially in the AL East.
4. Blue Jays-I got a chance to see this team this spring and I loved what I saw. John Farrell had this group of lesser-known guys playing small ball and manufacturing runs which is exactly what they're going to have to do to win some games this year. Top to bottom this is the weakest lineup in the division although it is exciting to see Jose Bautista in the three hole. The rotation is average, but it should be exciting to see what Kyle Drabeck, the key piece in the Halladay deal and the son of former NL Cy-Young winner Dough Drabeck, can do.
5. Orioles-I've been hearing a lot about how this team signed Vlad, Derek Lee and they got Buck Showalter as their new manager, so they should be up and coming. Well I'm not buying it. This is like the Rangers all over again, Buck Showalter managing a team with all batting and no pitching. He doesn't even have Kenny Rogers this time around, he has Jeremy Guthrie as the number one starter, who isn't awful but would have to be the third or fourth starter for this team to be truly competitive in such a strong division.
Al Central
1. White Sox-Tough division to pick, the top three teams could all go any way within that top three. I'm going to take the White Sox to win this division. They probably have the most fire-power at the top of their rotation once Peavy returns, which it looks like won't take all that long, although I might argue the Twins have better pitching top to bottom. As a long-time Adam Dunn supporter I love the Adam Dunn signing and even though I don't like the DH, that's probably where he's always belonged. The lineup has a lot of depth and Ozzie is capable of guiding this team to winning the division.
2. Twins- Love the Twins, I definitely think they're capable of winning the division, but they're going to have to stay healthy and there are now some serious doubts in my mind on whether Morneau and Nathan can do that for an entire season. Still this is a group of over-achievers who know how to win and are used to playing and winning together. They have a lot of guys who come up huge when they need it like Kubel and Delmon Young and their pitching staff isn't super flashy but they know how to win games, something that I think gets overlooked a lot of the time.
3. Tigers-They have a dangerous heart of the lineup with Ordonez, Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Their pitching rotation has shown a lot of potential over the past few years, but hasn't been able to all come together and pitch well at the same time. If they can do this than watch out for the Tigers this year.
4. Indians-Tough year for the Indians and Royals as they'll have some trouble competitng in this division. It's tough to see a guys like Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner playing for mediocre Cleveland their whole careers. This team isn't terrible, with those two guys, though both are probably past their prime, and Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson in the rotation. Still, best case scenario this team comes close probably wins 75 games.
5. Royals-Disappointing to see them lose Greinke because he was something for Kansas City fans to get excited about. I'll admit I don't know a whole lot about this team but I do know their minor league system is supposed to be stockpiled with talent. Hopefully with the pieces from the Greinke deal and years of favorable draft picks they'll be much better in a few years.
AL West
1. Angels- I love this team's rotation, especially if their fifth starter Scott Kazmir can get it back and be like he was a couple years ago, which would make him by far the best fifth starter in baseball. They have decent offense, not the greatest, and are getting a little old (Bobby Abreu, Tori Hunter), but with their pitching they should have enough to get the job done.
2. A's-To quote my friend “I love when Bill Bean makes a good signing,” in reference to the Matsui acquisition. Overall this team has a lot of question marks, but if guys can play up to their full potential (Willingham, Dejesus) this team could definitely make a playoff run. The rotation isn't full of big name guys but definitely guys able to get the job done and Trevor Cahill is extremely underrated and a possible Cy Young candidate leading their rotation.
3. Rangers-The defending AL Champs are definitely still loaded especially offensively, but the issues with Michael Young could cause some problems on the field. I also thought they benefitted last year from both a weak AL West and an extremely strong start which they kind of struggled to hang on to, showing they may lack the consistency to win this strong division over a full season.
4. Mariners-I came into last season very high on the Mariners, and they let me down. This year I'm not as excited. They'll look really good for the very start of the season, because you'll get to see Felix Hernandez, Ichiro and Chone Figgins. Then after that the team gets a whole lot worse and they won't be able to compete with three very strong teams out west.
NL East
1. Phillies-Safe pick, but there's no reason the Phillies shouldn't win this division. They have the best rotation in baseball, even though there may be some offensive question marks with Utley being injured, losing Werth and Rollins being on the decline. But, with Howard, Victorino and Ibanez, they have more than enough offense to provide run support for a staff that's going to have the best ERA in baseball. Seeing Cliff Lee in his first full season in the NL should be very exciting.
2. Braves-This team is very good. They have exciting young talent like Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, veteran leadership in Chipper Jones and guys in the peak of their career like Dan Uggla, Nate McClouth and Brian McCann. This might be the best offense in the NL, and the pitching is solid, but leaning on the aging Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson could be troublesome for the rotation. Still this team could definitely compete with the Phillies to win the division.
3. Mets-Another season, another disappointing Mets team coming up. Jason Bay is coming into the season hurt, Beltran is playing but looking like he's hurt, the rotation is shaky. If it weren't for the huge salary (which is looking like it may not last) this team wouldn't even be in contention for third.
4. Nationals-Signing Jayson Werth was big step for this team even if they may have overpaid, because it shows their committed to spending some money and getting good. It gives them a very formidable lineup that will only get better if Bryce Harper is called up by July like he is expecting. It's too bad Strasburg is hurt because he would add a lot of excitement to a rotation that is frankly lacking it. Still, don't let 36 year old opening day starter, Livan Hernandez fool you, this is a team very much on the incline.
5. Marlins-With Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Joe Johnson, this team still has some exciting pieces and the Marlins are baseball's natural overachievers, but they probably just have too much ground to cover this year and don't quite have the pieces to do it. Still, counting the Marlins out is never a good idea and it isn't this year either.
NL Central
1. Brewers-I know it's only spring training, but the Brewers hit .321! That's a team that can straight up swing the bat. Unfortunately for them it looks like Greinke will miss about a month, but they still have a respectable staff without him and once he returns this team is gonna be very good, and should take advantage of a wide open NL Central.
2. Cardinals-Seems like things just haven't been working out for this team lately and Wainwright being hurt does not help their cause at all. Still they have a very strong lineup and Pujols in a contract year when he clearly wants more money could be scary good and a potential triple crown winner. If everything works out for the Cards they're very capable of winning the division.
3. Reds-Last years winners are good, but I don't think they're quite strong enough to compete with the Brewers and Cards. The rotation is good but not great, I'd love to see Chapman move to the starting rotation and see what he can do. They still have the pieces to repeat and the top three in the NL Central could go any way but I don't think they're quite as strong as the Brewers or Cards.
4. Pirates-That's right I'm picking my beloved Pirates here. Maybe pure wishful thinking, but I think this is a pretty exciting young lineup. Pedro Alverez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker andAndrew McCutchen make up a really good young core who could all hit .300 this year. They also just signed Lyle Overbay and traded for Chris Snyder to hopefully add some much needed power. The down spot, and there's not way to sugar coat it, is that the rotation sucks. The bullpen sucks. They have a few prospects who aren't quite ready, but the rotation won't be good enough to carry them anywhere above fourth ideally.
5. Astros-This team isn't very good, last year they started out losing something like 7 straight, and they looked like the worst team in baseball. Not a whole lot of excitement in the lineup, the top is made up of all 27-28 year olds who they've had very high expectations for that they aren't quite hitting now that they should be in the peaks of their careers.
6. Cubs-That's right I'm picking the Cubs for last. I don't care if they're paying $150 mil a year, if you want to know the most boring way to spend $150 mil ask to Cubs to buy a baseball team for you. Great deal signing Carlos Pena for $5 mil a year, the dude hit a solid .196 last season. I don't care if they come in fourth, like they probably will, they deserve last based on the amount they'll be paying per win.
NL West
1. Rockies-Not as good pitching as the Giants, but the offense is really good, and they have an electric young core with Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitski I'm running out of time to post this so I'll leave it at that but it's time for this team to play well for a whole season rather than just ending well.
2. Giants-Last years world series winners, could definitely win this division mainly based on pitching but they have a decent offense too, Pablo Sandoval is supposed to be in much better shape than before and it's hard to pick against Lincecum, Sanchez and Cain at the top of the rotation.
3. Dodgers-This team is going in the wrong direction, maybe because of the divorce trial of their owners, which has put financial strain on the club, but they're moving away from their back to back division titles a couple of years ago. Clayton Kershaw is a definite Cy Young candidate, but the team does not have the best lineup or rotation right now.

4. Padres-I like their rotation with Matt Latos, but they lost way to many pieces to be good with the losses of Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, Tony Gwynn Jr. and a whole medley of other guys.
5. Diamondbacks-They have two guys in their staring lineup who are over .270 career hitters and they're both below .277. I think that says all it needs to, even if they hit home runs a bunch of solo shots aren't going to get the job done.

AL Wild Card: Twins-Not picking the Yankees because I think the Sox win 75% of the games against them this year which is going to make a significant difference rather than years where they go 50-50.
NL Wild Card: Braves-The Braves are just a really good team, definitely capable of winning the division, their lineup is dangerous top to bottom and their pitching staff will get the job done.
ALCS: Sox over White Sox- Too much pitching, too much batting from the Red Sox, going to be very difficult for anyone to match up with them.
NLCS: Braves over Phillies-Usually I like pitching in the playoffs, as shown by the Giants last year, but I think the Braves staff can stay close to the Phillies pitching guys like Derek Lowe and Tommy Hanson on limited rest, and they should be able to outhit the Fightin' Phils.
World Series: R. Sox over Braves-See above. This Sox team top to bottom is better than anyone on paper, and Francona knows what it takes to get them to win. The depth of their bullpen and starting five should get their pitching through the playoffs fresher than anybody else and they'll be ready to go in the World Series.

Mailbag, take one

Alright, sorry to my followers for the delay in posts, I'm sure both of you have been devastated during the hiatus.

To keep myself to some guaranteed regularity, I'm going to add a new feature starting right now. It'll be called the “Reader Mailbag,” questions can be submitted to henglehart@students.colgate.edu or to the comment box at the bottom of this page. And we've got some questions now, so I'll jump right into it:

Nothing on the Celtics? Come on, I have to know if this team's gonna be okay or not.

(Submitted by Greg from Newburyport, MA)

Sorry Greg, of course the Celtics are my top priority right now. I gave them a premature tweet where I declared I wasn't worried anymore, after seeing them play eight minutes of almost perfect basketball to finish off the Knicks game. They responded with an almost excusable loss to Memphis, who is at least going to have a winning record, and then a loss to Charlotte. Charlotte's starting Center that night: Kwame Brown, I'll leave it at that. I didn't get to see either of those games because I'm trapped outside of the television market, but I've heard they were just straight up awful basketball by the 'tics. Doc apparently tore into the team after the Charlotte game and they responded by playing a great first quarter against the T'Wolves tonight, which they then went on to almost blow after a very poor last three quarters. So I guess this mainly means we're going to have to wait until the playoffs to see if they can switch the “on-switch” again, because under all the mess I'm pretty sure there's still a good team down there. The slight upside I see is that the trade mainly broke up the D on paper, and so far the D has been allowing about the same amount of ppg as they were before the deal. So, if the D can keep it up, Krstic adds a new scoring option at Center and Green gives one off the bench. They haven't been the problem, but mainly the other four starters have been. If they can turn it on in the playoffs like they've done in the past, they could be in pretty good shape. But the bad news is they lost to the Bobcats at home, which I just can't see a championship team doing. The important thing is trying to somehow hold on to the two seed so that the Miami series won't be in the second round and because I think the Sixers are much scarier than the fading Knicks.

How about Butler and VCU in the final four?

(Submitted by Greg from Hamilton, NY)

I'll admit right now I was wrong about VCU. I was a firm believer they shouldn't have made the tournament after coming in fourth in the CAA. I'm still stubborn enough (and a big enough Buffs supporter) to say Colorado should have gotten in over them, but I still think they both should have gotten in over UAB. Anyways I think it's great for the tourney, hopefully we'll se a little more love for mid-majors from now on. All that said, I think that was an incredibly lucky game for VCU. They executed really well, and still the only reason they won was because Kansas was missing open shots. Kansas didn't shoot 11% from downtown because VCU covered the three so well, they shot 11% because they had multiple open looks rim out. VCU probably wins that game one out of twenty times, but that's probably better than a lot of teams, so props to VCU. Still, I don't see them getting by Butler. I have so much faith in Brad Stevens right now, even if he just lied on national TV an said he got out-coached by Billy Donovan. A) Billy Donovan did not out-coach him in that game. If he had out-coached him, his second ranked Gators with superior athletes, and recruits would have beaten the Bulldogs. His team also would've pounded the inside and dominated down there and the last shot of the game wouldn't have been a gross fade-away three pointer, but rather a decent look off of an actually well drawn up play. B) Even if Billy Donovan had out-coached him yesterday, Brad Stevens' coaching talents extend past single game preparation. He works year round to get his team working together and playing good basketball, and every time they get out on the court they show just how good a team they are.

Nothing on baseball yet? I thought you were a baseball guy, you slacking?

(Submitted by Greg from Mass.)

You're absolutely right, I am slacking. Maybe it's the fact that I've been stuck in the harshest winter of my life, maybe it's because I'm not playing this year for the first time since I was four, maybe it's because I'm actually a tiny bit excited about the Pirates young talent, or maybe it's because I'm still fired up from that awesome World Series last year, but this is maybe the most excited I've ever been about an MLB season starting. So expect my next post to be a preview, and expect it to be up within the next 24 hours, and finally I'll end with a baseball question/tribute:

Can I get a little love for my man Mike Hampton? Calling it quits after sixteen years.

(Submitted by Greg from NY)

Absolutely some love for Mike Hampton. I posted a little bit about it on my twitter yesterday, which I'll now put in a shameless plug for, follow me, @gregenglehart, for a very random assortment of mainly sports related tweets. Anyways, a lot of people, myself included, think of Mike Hampton as a great hitting pitcher, which he absolutely as. But let's not forget the dude could pitch. 22-4 with a 2.90 ERA in 1999. He also hit .311 that year with 3 doubles and 3 triples! Gotta love seeing a pitcher leg out a triple. So congrats on a great career Mike. I am officially making you the second member of both my 1998-2003 all underrated team, and my all underrated Mike's team, both which so far includes Mike Sweeney (.333, 29 HR's and 144 RBI's on the Royals for crying out loud! He must've hit 50% of their baserunners in that season!).

So keep the questions coming folks, and look for an MLB preview and maybe even the completion of those underrated teams coming soon.

NBA Trades

Let's start with the Melo deal. The one thing that matters for the Knicks playoff success now is how well they finish the regular season. If they stay at six they're not going to win without home court against either the Bulls or Celtics, I don't see Miami slipping to three right now (I definitely don't think they're a lock for first either though). But if they can make up the five and a half that they're down right now and play Atlanta or Orlando, I guarantee the Knicks will win either of those series. Two reasons for this, first is the David Stern factor. David Stern loves the Knicks and would love to see the Knicks be a title contender again, not to mention how much he would love having New York's TV audience watching for multiple series. If you don't think David Stern loves the Knicks and wants them to win watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWExLwQenW0&feature=related if you don't think the NBA is fixed watch this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhlGYvIMPgQ&feature=related and the other parts or read this http://deadspin.com/#!5392067/excerpts-from-the-book-the-nba-doesnt-want-you-to-read and the rest of Tim Donaghy's book, or just look at free throw disparity in playoff games favoring the more “elite” teams. The other reason I think the Knick's would beat Orlando or Atlanta is simply because this deal does make New York a very good team. Their bench is pretty thin and Ronny Turiaf as the starting center is going to leave them pretty weak on the inside, but Billups, Anthony and Stoudemire is a great core. Obviously because they're all great players, but also the chemistry seems so much better than the group in South Beach. Billups and Anthony have already been playing together so there shouldn't be any major issues there. While he may not have quite played with an Amare Stoudemire caliber scorer, Melo has played with some better scoring options than either Lebron or Dwayne Wade had before they joined forces, so it shouldn't result in one of them awkwardly standing in the corner while they watch the other one score all by themselves, like the Heat were doing early on. Stoudemire played with some very good players in Phoenix, so he shouldn't have much problem joining these two. And Billups brings experience to the table, he's a guy who has a ring and was the Finals MVP when he won that ring. So this is a good team. If they make it past the first round, the David Stern factor will probably end, so it comes down to who the Knicks would play. I don't think the Knicks match-up all that well against Boston or Chicago. Boozer and Noah are too strong inside for Stoudemire and mainly Turiaf to handle. As good as Billups is, he's no Derrick Rose, and the Bulls actually have a bench they can turn to. The Celtics also can probably beat up on New York inside a little bit, and they're too deep for the Knicks to handle. I actually think the Knicks match up the best with the Heat. Both teams are pretty similar; lacking a strong starting center, lacking a deep bench, built around three players. I think this would end up being a very interesting series, where Stoudemire could potentially go off on Bosh. Landry Fields could be the best starter outside of either teams big three, which gives the Knicks a nice weapon. I wouldn't pick the Knicks but I think they'd have a pretty decent shot at pulling off the upset.

The downside of this trade is for this team to be good they need Billups or another good starter to contend for a title. That leaves them with a pretty short window unless they can make some other moves in the offseason, which would probably have to be through free agency as they really didn't leave themselves with many pieces to trade. Not to mention they need to sign more bench players as well. Overall I'll give this trade a B- for the Knicks. They probably overpaid giving up so many young pieces, but they traded potential for proven players who make them a great team now, and I think it was a small victory that they only had to give up one pick.

From the Nuggets standpoint, I think this was a great move. Billups is getting old, they haven't been able to win with Melo and the possibility that he might not re-sign, as slim as that may have been, made it a good decision to move him. They got some great young pieces with Gallinari only being 22, Wilson Chandler's only 23, Mozgov is 24 and Felton is 26. In a couple of years this gives the Nuggets potential to be one of the best teams in the west. Trading Gallinari for a pick might be risky as he's shaping into a very good player, but getting a lottery pick might be able to add a superstar to this core of already strong players which would make the Nuggets title contenders around 2014 or so. Grade: A

Also on the trade horizon, the Celtics are trying to get Shane Battier. I love it. I love it, I love I love it. Even though I personally believe C's would have won the championship the last three years if it weren't for injuries, the last two years have lacked something that the '08 team had. First was James Posey, who played lockdown defense off the bench. Last year the team also lacked Eddie House being a spark-plug off the bench. So, why not bring both those attributes back with one player? Sounds like two-time NBA All-Defensive second team member and career .385 three point shooter Shane Battier could help. Battier would be able to matchup with LeBron in a series against the Heat, and he would be a shooter off the bench, something the Celtics really don't have right now. And to top it all off, he would be expiring contract at the end of the year. This deal could not possibly be any better. The only setback is the Celtics may not have the pieces to deal. Ideally, the trade would involve Nate Robinson, who the Celtics will not need with the return of Delonte West, and Battier could replace him as a decent scoring option off the bench. Normally I'd be really hesitant about trading picks with the end of the big three era looming, but I think it may be worth it here, as I think this would make a huge difference in the Celtics winning this year. Potential Grade: A+++++++++++.

Mike Brown: The Most Valuable Coach in NBA History?

On July 2^nd, 2010, the landscape of Cleveland basketball changed when the Cavs chose to bring the talents of Coach Byron Scott to Lake Eerie Beach. The move was met with less skepticism than one may have expected following Coach Mike Brown leading the team to 66 wins in 2008-2009 and 61 in 2009-2010, but his inability to win a title led to the organization bringing in Byron Scott, who had led the Nets to two NBA Finals in the early 2000's. While the move seemed like it would not hurt the Cavaliers too badly, as they retained a strong nucleus of players centered around Antwan Jamison, JJ Hickson, Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Anderson Varejao, Boobie Gibson and the versatile Leon Powe, not to mention electrifying newcomers like Ramon Sessions, few could have imagined that Brown was quite as important to Cleveland as it is now clearly evident that he was.

The Cavs recently snapped their NBA record, 26 game losing streak, leading many to wonder how could a team with only 21 losses in the entire season last year have slipped so far? One need look no further than the top and Coach Mike Brown. “Guys just responded to his coaching style,” former Cav and current Miami Heat Center Zydrunas Ilgauskas said in an interview last week, “I couldn't imagine that team being successful after he left. When he was out, so was I.” While the players have clearly struggled with the loss of Coach Brown, so has the local economy. In a study by Justin Snydor, economic professor at Case Western University, Snydor estimates that due to the decrease in Cavs attendance figures caused by Brown's absence, and the subsequent lack of success, the economy in downtown Cleveland will lose about $20 million from potential shoppers and eaters before and after the games. Paul Bettany, owner of Earl Averill's Bar and Grille on 34^th street, has been a diehard Cleveland sports fan his whole life, and showed his dedication 15 years ago when he proudly opened his establishment named after the late Indians center fielder. Bettany has felt the effects of Brown's departure more than most, “People used to pack this place before and after Cavs games,” Bettany told us on Sunday, “Now, we're lucky to fill up half the tables. With Mike Brown at the helm there was an expectation we'd win, Byron Scott's still got most of the same players, people just don't understand why he can't figure it out.”

Ironically, perhaps the greatest testament to Brown was given by Cavs owner Dan Gilbert when he wrote an open letter to Cavs fans hoping to console them and boost morale shorter after Scott was hired in place of Brown. Though Gilbert did not use the former coach's name in the letter, he made it clear he was referring to the Columbus-born Brown when he wrote, “As you now know, our former hero, who grew up in the very region that he deserted...is no longer a Cleveland Cavalier.” Gilbert went on to guarantee that the Cavs would win a title before the so-called “king” won one. “Dan and Coach Brown never got along all that great, so I was surprised to see Dan using the king as his nickname,” Ilgauskas said, “but you can see from that guarantee that there may have been some hard feelings there.” The hard feelings are felt by neither Brown nor the city of Cleveland. Brown, chose not to coach this year to allow Cleveland a head start on winning a title that Byron Scott now seems like he almost certainly will not deliver. “No, there are absolutely no hard feelings on our side,” said Bettany, “This city loves Mike Brown and would take him back in an instant. This guy had a .764 win percentage last season, right now we're at .164, get the man back as soon as possible.”

Despite the lack of success under Byron Scott, he has earned the support of his players. “Coach Brown was great, we can see now just how valuable to the franchise he was,” said Jamario Moon after last weeks losing-streak snapping win over the Clippers, “But he never had to deal with the adversity we're facing. We lost [Anderson] Varejao, Mo [Williams] and Leon [Powe] to injuries this season. We got Mo back tonight and we won, don't count Coach Scott out yet.” And Moon may be correct. It may not be so much Scott is a poor coach, rather Mike Brown is perhaps the most valuable coach in NBA history. “I don't want to knock my former teammates,” said Ilgauskas, “but if Coach [Brown] were to go to say the Bucks and get an opportunity to work with guys like Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings, man, I don't know if we never had that much talent back in Cleveland. I wouldn't want to play that team come June.” No team likely would. Our statistical analysis based on the Cavs win percentage with and without Brown estimates that a Mike Brown coached Milwaukee would have approximately 82 wins in the regular season. Byron Scott has done one successful thing in Cleveland this year and that is to show Mike Brown is the most valuable coach in since Red Auerbach.