(Note: I posted this about two seconds before the first pitch of the season, but I left some stuff out, i.e. my analysis for the D'Backs was "out of time and not worth mentioning" so I went back and cleaned it up a little.)
AL East
1. Red Sox-Hard to pick against the Sox here, coming off an 89 win season, which was hurt by injuries to key guys like Pedroia and Bucholz. Factor in their returns and the off season signings of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Bobby Jenks and this team is scary good. Not only do they have an extremely strong lineup, but their pitching rotation is crazy too. Everybody's talking about how good it is to have Hamels and Blanton as fourth and fifth starters, but I'd have to take Beckett and Dice-K over them any day of the week. Easy pick here for the Sox to win the AL East.
2. Yankees- Boring pick, Red Sox then Yankees, but it has to be made. This division is less competitve this year with the Rays on the decline and the teams paying $200 million should be the ones up front. But this Yankees team is very good, especially on the offensive end. Having Russell Martin behind the dish is a nice addition even if his numbers have been declining lately, and when you have Teixeira, A-Rod and Cano hitting 3,4,5, it's a pretty strong team. Still I don't think this team's pitching is nearly on par with its hitting, which is something to watch out for. When you look at how much money the team is spending and their offensive power, it's hard to believe they don't have anything above the young Ivan Nova, with three career decisions (though I'll admit it looks like he had a good spring) and the 34 year old, Freddy Garcia who has had a long and pretty mediocre career compared to the grandeur of much of this team. I think the Kevin Millwood signing, which shows they think they might have to turn to Kevin Millwood, says all you need to know about the relatively shaky rotation.
3. Rays-They lost a lot and I think the drop-off will be pretty significant after the Yankees this year. Kind of sad to see this go from young and talented bunch of guys to praying that Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez still belong on a baseball field and not in a retirement home. They do still have most of the guys who were around for their world series run and ensuing success, but they probably lack the depth to be very competitive this year, especially in the AL East.
4. Blue Jays-I got a chance to see this team this spring and I loved what I saw. John Farrell had this group of lesser-known guys playing small ball and manufacturing runs which is exactly what they're going to have to do to win some games this year. Top to bottom this is the weakest lineup in the division although it is exciting to see Jose Bautista in the three hole. The rotation is average, but it should be exciting to see what Kyle Drabeck, the key piece in the Halladay deal and the son of former NL Cy-Young winner Dough Drabeck, can do.
5. Orioles-I've been hearing a lot about how this team signed Vlad, Derek Lee and they got Buck Showalter as their new manager, so they should be up and coming. Well I'm not buying it. This is like the Rangers all over again, Buck Showalter managing a team with all batting and no pitching. He doesn't even have Kenny Rogers this time around, he has Jeremy Guthrie as the number one starter, who isn't awful but would have to be the third or fourth starter for this team to be truly competitive in such a strong division.
Al Central
1. White Sox-Tough division to pick, the top three teams could all go any way within that top three. I'm going to take the White Sox to win this division. They probably have the most fire-power at the top of their rotation once Peavy returns, which it looks like won't take all that long, although I might argue the Twins have better pitching top to bottom. As a long-time Adam Dunn supporter I love the Adam Dunn signing and even though I don't like the DH, that's probably where he's always belonged. The lineup has a lot of depth and Ozzie is capable of guiding this team to winning the division.
2. Twins- Love the Twins, I definitely think they're capable of winning the division, but they're going to have to stay healthy and there are now some serious doubts in my mind on whether Morneau and Nathan can do that for an entire season. Still this is a group of over-achievers who know how to win and are used to playing and winning together. They have a lot of guys who come up huge when they need it like Kubel and Delmon Young and their pitching staff isn't super flashy but they know how to win games, something that I think gets overlooked a lot of the time.
3. Tigers-They have a dangerous heart of the lineup with Ordonez, Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Their pitching rotation has shown a lot of potential over the past few years, but hasn't been able to all come together and pitch well at the same time. If they can do this than watch out for the Tigers this year.
4. Indians-Tough year for the Indians and Royals as they'll have some trouble competitng in this division. It's tough to see a guys like Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner playing for mediocre Cleveland their whole careers. This team isn't terrible, with those two guys, though both are probably past their prime, and Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson in the rotation. Still, best case scenario this team comes close probably wins 75 games.
5. Royals-Disappointing to see them lose Greinke because he was something for Kansas City fans to get excited about. I'll admit I don't know a whole lot about this team but I do know their minor league system is supposed to be stockpiled with talent. Hopefully with the pieces from the Greinke deal and years of favorable draft picks they'll be much better in a few years.
AL West
1. Angels- I love this team's rotation, especially if their fifth starter Scott Kazmir can get it back and be like he was a couple years ago, which would make him by far the best fifth starter in baseball. They have decent offense, not the greatest, and are getting a little old (Bobby Abreu, Tori Hunter), but with their pitching they should have enough to get the job done.
2. A's-To quote my friend “I love when Bill Bean makes a good signing,” in reference to the Matsui acquisition. Overall this team has a lot of question marks, but if guys can play up to their full potential (Willingham, Dejesus) this team could definitely make a playoff run. The rotation isn't full of big name guys but definitely guys able to get the job done and Trevor Cahill is extremely underrated and a possible Cy Young candidate leading their rotation.
3. Rangers-The defending AL Champs are definitely still loaded especially offensively, but the issues with Michael Young could cause some problems on the field. I also thought they benefitted last year from both a weak AL West and an extremely strong start which they kind of struggled to hang on to, showing they may lack the consistency to win this strong division over a full season.
4. Mariners-I came into last season very high on the Mariners, and they let me down. This year I'm not as excited. They'll look really good for the very start of the season, because you'll get to see Felix Hernandez, Ichiro and Chone Figgins. Then after that the team gets a whole lot worse and they won't be able to compete with three very strong teams out west.
NL East
1. Phillies-Safe pick, but there's no reason the Phillies shouldn't win this division. They have the best rotation in baseball, even though there may be some offensive question marks with Utley being injured, losing Werth and Rollins being on the decline. But, with Howard, Victorino and Ibanez, they have more than enough offense to provide run support for a staff that's going to have the best ERA in baseball. Seeing Cliff Lee in his first full season in the NL should be very exciting.
2. Braves-This team is very good. They have exciting young talent like Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, veteran leadership in Chipper Jones and guys in the peak of their career like Dan Uggla, Nate McClouth and Brian McCann. This might be the best offense in the NL, and the pitching is solid, but leaning on the aging Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson could be troublesome for the rotation. Still this team could definitely compete with the Phillies to win the division.
3. Mets-Another season, another disappointing Mets team coming up. Jason Bay is coming into the season hurt, Beltran is playing but looking like he's hurt, the rotation is shaky. If it weren't for the huge salary (which is looking like it may not last) this team wouldn't even be in contention for third.
4. Nationals-Signing Jayson Werth was big step for this team even if they may have overpaid, because it shows their committed to spending some money and getting good. It gives them a very formidable lineup that will only get better if Bryce Harper is called up by July like he is expecting. It's too bad Strasburg is hurt because he would add a lot of excitement to a rotation that is frankly lacking it. Still, don't let 36 year old opening day starter, Livan Hernandez fool you, this is a team very much on the incline.
5. Marlins-With Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Joe Johnson, this team still has some exciting pieces and the Marlins are baseball's natural overachievers, but they probably just have too much ground to cover this year and don't quite have the pieces to do it. Still, counting the Marlins out is never a good idea and it isn't this year either.
NL Central
1. Brewers-I know it's only spring training, but the Brewers hit .321! That's a team that can straight up swing the bat. Unfortunately for them it looks like Greinke will miss about a month, but they still have a respectable staff without him and once he returns this team is gonna be very good, and should take advantage of a wide open NL Central.
2. Cardinals-Seems like things just haven't been working out for this team lately and Wainwright being hurt does not help their cause at all. Still they have a very strong lineup and Pujols in a contract year when he clearly wants more money could be scary good and a potential triple crown winner. If everything works out for the Cards they're very capable of winning the division.
3. Reds-Last years winners are good, but I don't think they're quite strong enough to compete with the Brewers and Cards. The rotation is good but not great, I'd love to see Chapman move to the starting rotation and see what he can do. They still have the pieces to repeat and the top three in the NL Central could go any way but I don't think they're quite as strong as the Brewers or Cards.
4. Pirates-That's right I'm picking my beloved Pirates here. Maybe pure wishful thinking, but I think this is a pretty exciting young lineup. Pedro Alverez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker andAndrew McCutchen make up a really good young core who could all hit .300 this year. They also just signed Lyle Overbay and traded for Chris Snyder to hopefully add some much needed power. The down spot, and there's not way to sugar coat it, is that the rotation sucks. The bullpen sucks. They have a few prospects who aren't quite ready, but the rotation won't be good enough to carry them anywhere above fourth ideally.
5. Astros-This team isn't very good, last year they started out losing something like 7 straight, and they looked like the worst team in baseball. Not a whole lot of excitement in the lineup, the top is made up of all 27-28 year olds who they've had very high expectations for that they aren't quite hitting now that they should be in the peaks of their careers.
6. Cubs-That's right I'm picking the Cubs for last. I don't care if they're paying $150 mil a year, if you want to know the most boring way to spend $150 mil ask to Cubs to buy a baseball team for you. Great deal signing Carlos Pena for $5 mil a year, the dude hit a solid .196 last season. I don't care if they come in fourth, like they probably will, they deserve last based on the amount they'll be paying per win.
NL West
1. Rockies-Not as good pitching as the Giants, but the offense is really good, and they have an electric young core with Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitski I'm running out of time to post this so I'll leave it at that but it's time for this team to play well for a whole season rather than just ending well.
2. Giants-Last years world series winners, could definitely win this division mainly based on pitching but they have a decent offense too, Pablo Sandoval is supposed to be in much better shape than before and it's hard to pick against Lincecum, Sanchez and Cain at the top of the rotation.
3. Dodgers-This team is going in the wrong direction, maybe because of the divorce trial of their owners, which has put financial strain on the club, but they're moving away from their back to back division titles a couple of years ago. Clayton Kershaw is a definite Cy Young candidate, but the team does not have the best lineup or rotation right now.
AL East
1. Red Sox-Hard to pick against the Sox here, coming off an 89 win season, which was hurt by injuries to key guys like Pedroia and Bucholz. Factor in their returns and the off season signings of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Bobby Jenks and this team is scary good. Not only do they have an extremely strong lineup, but their pitching rotation is crazy too. Everybody's talking about how good it is to have Hamels and Blanton as fourth and fifth starters, but I'd have to take Beckett and Dice-K over them any day of the week. Easy pick here for the Sox to win the AL East.
2. Yankees- Boring pick, Red Sox then Yankees, but it has to be made. This division is less competitve this year with the Rays on the decline and the teams paying $200 million should be the ones up front. But this Yankees team is very good, especially on the offensive end. Having Russell Martin behind the dish is a nice addition even if his numbers have been declining lately, and when you have Teixeira, A-Rod and Cano hitting 3,4,5, it's a pretty strong team. Still I don't think this team's pitching is nearly on par with its hitting, which is something to watch out for. When you look at how much money the team is spending and their offensive power, it's hard to believe they don't have anything above the young Ivan Nova, with three career decisions (though I'll admit it looks like he had a good spring) and the 34 year old, Freddy Garcia who has had a long and pretty mediocre career compared to the grandeur of much of this team. I think the Kevin Millwood signing, which shows they think they might have to turn to Kevin Millwood, says all you need to know about the relatively shaky rotation.
3. Rays-They lost a lot and I think the drop-off will be pretty significant after the Yankees this year. Kind of sad to see this go from young and talented bunch of guys to praying that Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez still belong on a baseball field and not in a retirement home. They do still have most of the guys who were around for their world series run and ensuing success, but they probably lack the depth to be very competitive this year, especially in the AL East.
4. Blue Jays-I got a chance to see this team this spring and I loved what I saw. John Farrell had this group of lesser-known guys playing small ball and manufacturing runs which is exactly what they're going to have to do to win some games this year. Top to bottom this is the weakest lineup in the division although it is exciting to see Jose Bautista in the three hole. The rotation is average, but it should be exciting to see what Kyle Drabeck, the key piece in the Halladay deal and the son of former NL Cy-Young winner Dough Drabeck, can do.
5. Orioles-I've been hearing a lot about how this team signed Vlad, Derek Lee and they got Buck Showalter as their new manager, so they should be up and coming. Well I'm not buying it. This is like the Rangers all over again, Buck Showalter managing a team with all batting and no pitching. He doesn't even have Kenny Rogers this time around, he has Jeremy Guthrie as the number one starter, who isn't awful but would have to be the third or fourth starter for this team to be truly competitive in such a strong division.
Al Central
1. White Sox-Tough division to pick, the top three teams could all go any way within that top three. I'm going to take the White Sox to win this division. They probably have the most fire-power at the top of their rotation once Peavy returns, which it looks like won't take all that long, although I might argue the Twins have better pitching top to bottom. As a long-time Adam Dunn supporter I love the Adam Dunn signing and even though I don't like the DH, that's probably where he's always belonged. The lineup has a lot of depth and Ozzie is capable of guiding this team to winning the division.
2. Twins- Love the Twins, I definitely think they're capable of winning the division, but they're going to have to stay healthy and there are now some serious doubts in my mind on whether Morneau and Nathan can do that for an entire season. Still this is a group of over-achievers who know how to win and are used to playing and winning together. They have a lot of guys who come up huge when they need it like Kubel and Delmon Young and their pitching staff isn't super flashy but they know how to win games, something that I think gets overlooked a lot of the time.
3. Tigers-They have a dangerous heart of the lineup with Ordonez, Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Their pitching rotation has shown a lot of potential over the past few years, but hasn't been able to all come together and pitch well at the same time. If they can do this than watch out for the Tigers this year.
4. Indians-Tough year for the Indians and Royals as they'll have some trouble competitng in this division. It's tough to see a guys like Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner playing for mediocre Cleveland their whole careers. This team isn't terrible, with those two guys, though both are probably past their prime, and Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson in the rotation. Still, best case scenario this team comes close probably wins 75 games.
5. Royals-Disappointing to see them lose Greinke because he was something for Kansas City fans to get excited about. I'll admit I don't know a whole lot about this team but I do know their minor league system is supposed to be stockpiled with talent. Hopefully with the pieces from the Greinke deal and years of favorable draft picks they'll be much better in a few years.
AL West
1. Angels- I love this team's rotation, especially if their fifth starter Scott Kazmir can get it back and be like he was a couple years ago, which would make him by far the best fifth starter in baseball. They have decent offense, not the greatest, and are getting a little old (Bobby Abreu, Tori Hunter), but with their pitching they should have enough to get the job done.
2. A's-To quote my friend “I love when Bill Bean makes a good signing,” in reference to the Matsui acquisition. Overall this team has a lot of question marks, but if guys can play up to their full potential (Willingham, Dejesus) this team could definitely make a playoff run. The rotation isn't full of big name guys but definitely guys able to get the job done and Trevor Cahill is extremely underrated and a possible Cy Young candidate leading their rotation.
3. Rangers-The defending AL Champs are definitely still loaded especially offensively, but the issues with Michael Young could cause some problems on the field. I also thought they benefitted last year from both a weak AL West and an extremely strong start which they kind of struggled to hang on to, showing they may lack the consistency to win this strong division over a full season.
4. Mariners-I came into last season very high on the Mariners, and they let me down. This year I'm not as excited. They'll look really good for the very start of the season, because you'll get to see Felix Hernandez, Ichiro and Chone Figgins. Then after that the team gets a whole lot worse and they won't be able to compete with three very strong teams out west.
NL East
1. Phillies-Safe pick, but there's no reason the Phillies shouldn't win this division. They have the best rotation in baseball, even though there may be some offensive question marks with Utley being injured, losing Werth and Rollins being on the decline. But, with Howard, Victorino and Ibanez, they have more than enough offense to provide run support for a staff that's going to have the best ERA in baseball. Seeing Cliff Lee in his first full season in the NL should be very exciting.
2. Braves-This team is very good. They have exciting young talent like Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, veteran leadership in Chipper Jones and guys in the peak of their career like Dan Uggla, Nate McClouth and Brian McCann. This might be the best offense in the NL, and the pitching is solid, but leaning on the aging Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson could be troublesome for the rotation. Still this team could definitely compete with the Phillies to win the division.
3. Mets-Another season, another disappointing Mets team coming up. Jason Bay is coming into the season hurt, Beltran is playing but looking like he's hurt, the rotation is shaky. If it weren't for the huge salary (which is looking like it may not last) this team wouldn't even be in contention for third.
4. Nationals-Signing Jayson Werth was big step for this team even if they may have overpaid, because it shows their committed to spending some money and getting good. It gives them a very formidable lineup that will only get better if Bryce Harper is called up by July like he is expecting. It's too bad Strasburg is hurt because he would add a lot of excitement to a rotation that is frankly lacking it. Still, don't let 36 year old opening day starter, Livan Hernandez fool you, this is a team very much on the incline.
5. Marlins-With Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Joe Johnson, this team still has some exciting pieces and the Marlins are baseball's natural overachievers, but they probably just have too much ground to cover this year and don't quite have the pieces to do it. Still, counting the Marlins out is never a good idea and it isn't this year either.
NL Central
1. Brewers-I know it's only spring training, but the Brewers hit .321! That's a team that can straight up swing the bat. Unfortunately for them it looks like Greinke will miss about a month, but they still have a respectable staff without him and once he returns this team is gonna be very good, and should take advantage of a wide open NL Central.
2. Cardinals-Seems like things just haven't been working out for this team lately and Wainwright being hurt does not help their cause at all. Still they have a very strong lineup and Pujols in a contract year when he clearly wants more money could be scary good and a potential triple crown winner. If everything works out for the Cards they're very capable of winning the division.
3. Reds-Last years winners are good, but I don't think they're quite strong enough to compete with the Brewers and Cards. The rotation is good but not great, I'd love to see Chapman move to the starting rotation and see what he can do. They still have the pieces to repeat and the top three in the NL Central could go any way but I don't think they're quite as strong as the Brewers or Cards.
4. Pirates-That's right I'm picking my beloved Pirates here. Maybe pure wishful thinking, but I think this is a pretty exciting young lineup. Pedro Alverez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker andAndrew McCutchen make up a really good young core who could all hit .300 this year. They also just signed Lyle Overbay and traded for Chris Snyder to hopefully add some much needed power. The down spot, and there's not way to sugar coat it, is that the rotation sucks. The bullpen sucks. They have a few prospects who aren't quite ready, but the rotation won't be good enough to carry them anywhere above fourth ideally.
5. Astros-This team isn't very good, last year they started out losing something like 7 straight, and they looked like the worst team in baseball. Not a whole lot of excitement in the lineup, the top is made up of all 27-28 year olds who they've had very high expectations for that they aren't quite hitting now that they should be in the peaks of their careers.
6. Cubs-That's right I'm picking the Cubs for last. I don't care if they're paying $150 mil a year, if you want to know the most boring way to spend $150 mil ask to Cubs to buy a baseball team for you. Great deal signing Carlos Pena for $5 mil a year, the dude hit a solid .196 last season. I don't care if they come in fourth, like they probably will, they deserve last based on the amount they'll be paying per win.
NL West
1. Rockies-Not as good pitching as the Giants, but the offense is really good, and they have an electric young core with Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitski I'm running out of time to post this so I'll leave it at that but it's time for this team to play well for a whole season rather than just ending well.
2. Giants-Last years world series winners, could definitely win this division mainly based on pitching but they have a decent offense too, Pablo Sandoval is supposed to be in much better shape than before and it's hard to pick against Lincecum, Sanchez and Cain at the top of the rotation.
3. Dodgers-This team is going in the wrong direction, maybe because of the divorce trial of their owners, which has put financial strain on the club, but they're moving away from their back to back division titles a couple of years ago. Clayton Kershaw is a definite Cy Young candidate, but the team does not have the best lineup or rotation right now.
4. Padres-I like their rotation with Matt Latos, but they lost way to many pieces to be good with the losses of Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, Tony Gwynn Jr. and a whole medley of other guys.
5. Diamondbacks-They have two guys in their staring lineup who are over .270 career hitters and they're both below .277. I think that says all it needs to, even if they hit home runs a bunch of solo shots aren't going to get the job done.
AL Wild Card: Twins-Not picking the Yankees because I think the Sox win 75% of the games against them this year which is going to make a significant difference rather than years where they go 50-50.
NL Wild Card: Braves-The Braves are just a really good team, definitely capable of winning the division, their lineup is dangerous top to bottom and their pitching staff will get the job done.
ALCS: Sox over White Sox- Too much pitching, too much batting from the Red Sox, going to be very difficult for anyone to match up with them.
NLCS: Braves over Phillies-Usually I like pitching in the playoffs, as shown by the Giants last year, but I think the Braves staff can stay close to the Phillies pitching guys like Derek Lowe and Tommy Hanson on limited rest, and they should be able to outhit the Fightin' Phils.
World Series: R. Sox over Braves-See above. This Sox team top to bottom is better than anyone on paper, and Francona knows what it takes to get them to win. The depth of their bullpen and starting five should get their pitching through the playoffs fresher than anybody else and they'll be ready to go in the World Series.
5. Diamondbacks-They have two guys in their staring lineup who are over .270 career hitters and they're both below .277. I think that says all it needs to, even if they hit home runs a bunch of solo shots aren't going to get the job done.
AL Wild Card: Twins-Not picking the Yankees because I think the Sox win 75% of the games against them this year which is going to make a significant difference rather than years where they go 50-50.
NL Wild Card: Braves-The Braves are just a really good team, definitely capable of winning the division, their lineup is dangerous top to bottom and their pitching staff will get the job done.
ALCS: Sox over White Sox- Too much pitching, too much batting from the Red Sox, going to be very difficult for anyone to match up with them.
NLCS: Braves over Phillies-Usually I like pitching in the playoffs, as shown by the Giants last year, but I think the Braves staff can stay close to the Phillies pitching guys like Derek Lowe and Tommy Hanson on limited rest, and they should be able to outhit the Fightin' Phils.
World Series: R. Sox over Braves-See above. This Sox team top to bottom is better than anyone on paper, and Francona knows what it takes to get them to win. The depth of their bullpen and starting five should get their pitching through the playoffs fresher than anybody else and they'll be ready to go in the World Series.
No comments:
Post a Comment