Sorry about the lack of postings lately, unfortunately the upcoming finals week is to blame, expect a return to more postings and the mailbag (the questions are piling up!) in a week or two. But it would be simply irresponsible of me, with the playoffs starting tomorrow, not to take a study break and do a second round preview.
Since there are plenty of “expert analysts” on ESPN to give you picks, I decided to do a breakdown on their NBA series picks since 2008 to see how much we should trust them. So here's who I would listen to:
1) David Thorpe: 38-11 (.775)
First Round: 25-3 (Our first round leader)
Second and Beyond: 13-8
Perfect Picks (Team and Games): 5
Note: 5-1 in Western Conference Semis, 0-3 in ECF
2) Tim Legler: 35-11 (.761)
First Round: 19-6
Second and Beyond: 16-5 (Leader)
Perfect Picks: 4 (Tied for lowest total, seems adamant about always picking series to go at least 6)
Note: Did not pick the Eastern First Round in 2008, which most analysts got perfect, may have cost him 4 wins and the lead. 6-0 in the second round of the west.
3) Chris Broussard: 38-12 (.760)
First Round: 24-5
Second and Beyond: 14-7
Perfect Picks: 6
Notes: 5-1 in conference finals, 1-2 in finals.
4) Chad Ford: 37-13 (.740)
First Round: 23-6
Second and Beyond: 14-7
Perfect Picks: 10 (Tied for lead)
Notes: 0-3 in ECF, 3-0 in WCF
5) John Hollinger: 36-13 (.735)
First Round: 22-6
Second and Beyond: 14-7
Perfect Picks: 6
Notes: 10-2 in 2nd round, 2-4 in Conference Finals
6) JA Adande: 36-14 (.720)
First Round: 22-7
Second and Beyond: 14-7
Perfect Picks: 5
Notes: 8-6 in the Western First Round (Tied for worst), 0-3 in ECF, 3-0 in WCF
7) Chris Sheridan: 34-16 (.680)
First Round: 22-7
Second and Beyond: 12-9
Perfect Picks: 10 (Tied for lead)
Notes: Started out 12-0 in picks I looked at (all first rounders) then fell apart...
8) Henry Abbott: 32-18 (.640)
First Round: 21-8
Second and Beyond: 11-10 (Tied for Worst)
Perfect Picks: 9
Notes: 3-6 After Second Round
9) Marc Stein: 31-18 (.633)
First Round: 20-8 (Worst)
Second and Beyond: 11-10 (Tied for worst)
Perfect Picks: 4 (Tied for worst)
Notes: Picked the Raptors over the Magic in 6 in the first round of 2008...Don't know if I'm going to listen to him anymore...
So there you go. Some notes on that, I was missing a few series because the links were broken and some of the guys didn't pick a few. To see their picks for these playoffs go here: http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2011/matchup/_/teams/celtics-heat# and click through the series.
Anyways I'll keep my picks short now because that took a while and it should serve as a guide of what picks to trust but here we go:
Western Conference- Quick note on the west, I'm not very high on any of these teams. The first round looked like a bunch of aging teams on their last legs, with some exciting new teams that don't (and probably won't) have enough to win a title. The only team that I though looked very good was the Thunder, and if that first game hadn't had the missed offensive interference call, Denver might have stolen that game, the outlook would've been completely different and the series would still be going. Ah, well.
2 Lakers vs 3 Mavericks: The Mavericks looked better against a better team in the first round. Add in the fact that Kobe might be dealing with ankle trouble, Gasol looked pretty shaky, there's about a 110% chance Bynum will suffer some sort of injury it looks like this could be the series the Lakers may finally go down. However, the Lakers (and the NBA front office), always seem to find a way to win. Last year they ran into a little trouble with the Thunder a couple years ago the Rockets looked like they would beat them and this year they lost game one. They always seem to find a way. Tough to call, I'll go Lakers in 7.
4 Thunder vs 8 Grizzlies: The series everyone was expecting. The Griz beat the Thunder three out of four times this year and are coming off their upset of the first seeded Spurs. Unfortunately, in the regular season the Griz had the advantage over the Thunder because there was no Kendrick Perkins to bully Zach Randolph (and now Marc Gasol looking good too) down low, and Memphis loses their advantage of being younger and more athletic than the team they're facing. I think the Thunder look like the best team in the West right now and they win in 5.
Easter Conference
1 Bulls vs. 5 Hawks: The Hawks surprised me in the first round, actually showing up to play unlike last year. They probably looked like they wanted it more than the Bulls in the first round, until game 5 when Chicago got it together. I still think Chicago is the best team in basketball right now. As long as Boozer gets going, which I expect him to now that he doesn't have to get knocked around by the dangerous Jeff Foster down low, Chicago wins this in a comfortable 6.
2 Heat vs. 3 Celtics: The series everyone, including myself, has been waiting for. Throw out home court in this one, both teams are hungry to go into the other building and quiet the crowd. I think both teams split their first home games. Normally I would give Boston an edge off the bench but they looked pretty terrible in the first round. My first key to this series is Jeff Green, the Celtics traded Perk to get a back up wing who can guard guys like LeBron (okay, mainly just LeBron) and the Celtics need him to show up and play some Tony Allen or James Poseyesque defense off the bench. The second is will the Heat be able to stop Rondo. He's probably drooling over the Mike Bibby matchup and the Heat are going to need to stop him if they want a chance. Despite the rivalry, I'm making a Celtics-Lakers connection here and saying they both know how to win games. The healthy Celtics have found a way to win all the games they had in the big-3 era and until they can't do that, I'm picking them. C's in 7.
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